I believe that scenario-building is a meaningful exercise fulfilling several objectives. When conducted by an international team of experts, the scenario process facilitates the development of a common intellectual space even in the most difficult periods for bilateral relations. Scenarios also supply valuable information to policymakers, help them to avoid the irreparable, identify unexpected dangers and threats, and discover the new opportunities that may emerge under certain circumstances. So scenario-building is far from being an easy and entertaining genre.
It is worth noting that it is particularly difficult to work on scenarios concerning relations between countries. While one can paint the prospects of a single country as a rosy and internally coherent "picture from the future," including more than one country greatly increases the number of variables. The process of selecting the necessary pieces and assembling them in a logical and coherent manner, while weighing the importance of each variable, requires great precision.
In my opinion, too little attention is paid to the EU-Russia relationship as a subsystem in the general system of international relations. This is rather strange, given the importance of this subsystem for the countries of the "common neighborhood" and for other areas of the Eurasian continent. Moreover, the EU is clearly more inclined than the United States to communicate with Russia, while Russian demography, trade flows, and oil and gas pipelines are oriented more toward Western Europe than eastern Eurasia (and will remain so in the longer term).
That is why I welcome the publication of the EUREN report, which presents four scenarios for the EU-Russia relationship in 2030. I consider all the scenarios to be well-founded and competently explicated, but I would like to emphasize the "Descent into Anarchy" scenario, which is in my opinion the most probable. I believe that the long-term negative consequences of the coronavirus pandemic will strengthen the trends towards fragmentation of political spaces and loss of governability at national and supranational levels that were emerging even before the pandemic.