Analytics
EUREN Brief 14
T
Russia – Africa: dilemmas and
opportunities for the EU
The Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi in October
2019, attended by the heads of states and governments of 43 African states and co-chaired by Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian President and African Union Chairman Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, was
the first of its kind in the history of Russian-African relations and a clear indication of Russia's
increasing interest and presence on the African continent. It is important, therefore, to understand
how and why Africa is important to Russia. This paper analyzes the drivers and challenges of Russian
(re)engagement and draws some conclusions on how and in what spheres the EU and Russia could find
common ground for cooperation (see EUREN Brief
no. 15 by Alex Vines).
A lot of misconceptions surround the African continent. Most
often we hear about its problems and the threats it faces. But the continent is far more than the
sum of its stereotypes. To achieve their goals, however, African countries will need to continue
pursuing the resolution of the region's existing economic, trade and social problems comprehensively
and systematically. The main challenges that stand before African states and societies today are
hunger, disease, undereducation, underdeveloped infrastructure, dependence on the export of raw
materials, and the influence of foreign monopolies on decision making.
The strengthening of
trade and economic ties with other countries can help to overcome the challenges facing African
states and is, therefore, one of the main drivers of economic development in Africa. It defines the
increasing efforts of African governments to build long-term trade and economic relations with
external partners. Africa's general economic performance continues to improve, with gross domestic
product growth reaching an estimated 3.5 percent in 2018, about the same as in 2017, and up 1.4
percent compared to 2016. Looking forward, it is projected that African economic growth will
accelerate to 4 percent in 2019 and 4.1 percent in 2020. [1]
While this is more than in other emerging and developing countries, it remains insufficient to
address the structural challenges of the persistent current and fiscal deficits and debt
vulnerability. The challenge is thus twofold: to raise the current growth path and to increase the
efficiency of growth in generating employment. Threats and opportunities open doors for new and old
players alike to (re)define their policies and seek new opportunities.
Alexandra A. Arkhangelskaya
Higher School of Economics, Moscow
Higher School of Economics, Moscow
January 2020
Why Africa is important to Russia:
drivers, opportunities and deeds
Firstly, one needs to acknowledge that Africa is
a continent of 54 countries that are politically, economically, culturally, and geographically
diverse. In this paper, the term Africa stands for the continental approach of the Russian
Federation to the regions and countries that are geographically located in Africa. The Foreign
Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, which was approved in 2016, mentions Africa just once, as
if in passing. [2]
In Sochi, Vladimir Putin stressed that relations with the African continent are a Russian foreign
policy priority. Why did this change happen?
The main drivers of Russia's declaration of
re-engagement lie not only in the sphere of the Russian response to international isolation and the
need to seek allies on the world stage, but also in its economic and political readiness to find
comprehensive and mutually beneficial projects that could stimulate the "return" to Africa on
different terms and in different circumstances from those of the Soviet era. Russia is ready to
compete for broad cooperation with Africa, as Moscow understands that if it does not do it now, it
will be too late. The tension created by this kind of competition is growing, and not just with
former players, such as the EU, China and India, but also Turkey, South Korea, Indonesia, Saudi
Arabia and others that are becoming more active in exploring the opportunities that the continent
has to offer.
The countries of Africa are developing quite successfully in economic terms.
Many sub-Saharan economies showed, on average, a growth rate of GDP of 5.2%, from 2000 to 2013. [3] Some
African countries have even been nicknamed "African lions", as an analogy to the "Asian tigers". In
many African countries the middle class is growing rapidly. In combination with high population
growth rates this has created an increase in consumption and demand, including for Russian goods and
services.
Russia's trade turnover with African countries has reached $20 billion in 2018.
[4]
This is only half the trade turnover of African countries with France and approximately a tenth of
the trade turnover with China. But it shows increasing interest, which is also expressed in the 92
agreements, contracts and memoranda of understanding signed at the Russia – Africa Summit and
Economic Forum in Sochi. In addition, documents worth a total of RUB 1.004 trillion were signed,
excluding agreements whose value was a trade secret. [5]
The countries of Africa are developing quite
successfully in economic terms. Many sub-Saharan economies showed, on average, a growth rate of
GDP of 5.2%, from 2000 to 2013. Some African countries have even been nicknamed "African lions",
as an analogy to the "Asian tigers"
UN reports predict that the population of
sub-Saharan Africa will double to 2.5 billion people by 2050: the birth rate there is high, with
women currently having an average of 4.4 children. By 2100, the UN predicts that the overall
population of Africa will have grown to about 4.3 billion. As a result, African states will face
serious challenges. Russia wants to contribute to their solution.
Education is one of the
spheres where Russia can offer support. It should not be forgotten that the total number of
graduates from African countries trained in the USSR is more than 400,000. The USSR helped to train
and form many of the continent's current elites. In 2019, almost 30,000 applications from African
countries were received by Russian universities. The quota for scholarships is currently only 1,819
people, which is low compared to Soviet times. Every year Rossotrudnichestvo [6]
selects promising young people from different countries around the world and sends them
to study in the People's Friendship University of Russia and other well-known Russian universities
(450 Russian universities participate in the programme). About 20,000 students from Africa study in
Russia today. Today students from sub-Saharan Africa make up 5.3 percent and students from the
Middle East and North Africa make up 8 percent of all international students in Russia. Between 2003
and 2017, the number of African students in Russia has tripled. [7]
Russia is increasingly turning its attention to Africa as a market for its goods and is ready to
share new solutions and technologies that will develop industry and human capital. African
governments, in turn, express confidence in Russia as a partner. The Map of Russian Competencies for
Africa [8]
includes 39 products in seven areas: medicine, mineral resources, digital state, education,
transport infrastructure, energy and agriculture. Over 170 Russian companies and organizations have
submitted a total of 280 proposals for cooperation at the Sochi summit.
Russia and many
African leaderships also converge in their interest to gradually change the international system to
a qualitatively new level, and to provide African states with a significant role in the global
arena. The growing importance and political weight of Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, Angola and other
African countries makes them interesting partners for Russia. The absence of serious foreign policy
disagreements and Moscow's abstention from demands for changes in governance positively
distinguishes Russia from many other external players on the African continent, including the EU.
After all, the economic model that the EU has proposed to African states does not fully respect
their sovereignty.
The history and present of Russia's
Africa policy
The first noticeable Russian engagement in
Africa took place during the Anglo-Boer wars at the end of the 19th century, when Russian
volunteers supported the Boers in their struggle. [9]
The Soviet Union took an active interest in the end of colonialism, including in Africa. In the
1950s and early 1960s Moscow actively supported national liberation movements during what it called
the "Collapse of the colonial system of imperialism". It also provided comprehensive military and
economic assistance to young African states. This assistance was often either gratuitous or involved
long-term loans that did not have a full international legal form. In return, Moscow demanded the
proclamation of a "socialist orientation" by the respective countries and their loyalty to the USSR
in the systemic conflict with the U.S.
Ideology remains to a large extent the cornerstone
of Russian-African dialogue today. Both sides emphasize that Russia has never had colonies on the
continent. As Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov put it at the Russia-Africa summit in Sochi: "Both
Russia and African states are opponents of unilateral sanctions, coercive measures and trade wars,
they consistently advocate that the system of world trade should be fair, and the fruits of
globalization can be enjoyed by all countries without exception, and not by a narrow group of
states". [10]
He also underlined the importance of "African decisions" for Africa and Russia's respect for the
sovereignty of African states.
Education is one of the spheres where Russia can
offer support. It should not be forgotten that the total number of graduates from African
countries trained in the USSR is more than 400,000. The USSR helped to train and form many of
the continent's current elites
Russia's interaction with African states has
traditionally been carried out on a bilateral basis. However, Russia also seeks to build active,
fruitful cooperation with African states in multilateral formats. This includes efforts to
strengthen cooperation with the African Union and regional integration associations. Seven major
African regional organizations were represented in Sochi: the African Union, the Community of
Southern African States (SADC), the Maghreb Union, the Sahel big five (G5 Sahel), the Economic
Community of Central African States, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the
East African Community. The leaders of these organizations did not just participate in the meeting
of heads of state, they also had a separate meeting with the Russian leadership. Having more allies
in multilateral formats is also a driver of Russian foreign policy in general, as it pursues the
transition of current international relations - in which Moscow is claiming a leading role.
The BRICS is another platform for growing multilateral cooperation between Russia and African
states. Although only South Africa is a full member of the bloc, representatives of a number of
African states have taken part in the group's summits as guests and observers. Russia has always
been a proponent of the idea of regional participation of neighboring states in the BRICS summits.
The prospect of including other African countries has also been discussed on numerous occasions. [11]
The task of deepening trade and economic cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and
the African Union countries has been set. President Putin invited the Eurasian Economic Commission
to participate in the Russia-Africa summit and supported the signing of a Memorandum of
understanding between the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) and the African Union. [12] The
conclusion of an Memorandum between the African Union and the EAEU deserves special attention,
especially with regard to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) – the largest in the
world in terms of participating countries (54 of the 55 AU member states) since the formation of the
World Trade Organization. This provides unique opportunities for agreements between the EAEU and
African regional integration formats.
Russian challenges in Africa:
opportunities for EU-Russian-African cooperation?
Russia has a stated long-term interest in the
African continent. It also faces a number of serious challenges that could be addressed more
efficiently with a partner experienced in African affairs, such as the EU. Although it is easier
today to find controversies than common ground between Russia and the EU, all sides, including
African states, would benefit if they managed to overcome their divergencies and to create
win-win-situations that could provide for more stability and prosperity on the African continent.
African nations are currently undergoing a series of transformations that span
infrastructure, the digital sphere, and the human sphere. Russia has outlined its main areas of
interest: energy, including renewables, infrastructure development and, especially, railway and
housing construction, the modern, high-tech extraction and processing of mineral resources,
agriculture, digital technologies, oil and gas exploration, medicine, science and education. [13]
Ideology remains to a large extent the
cornerstone of Russian-African dialogue today. Both sides emphasize that Russia has never had
colonies on the continent
The threat of losing opportunities and
significance as a result of China's increasing dominance and the growing competition among external
players could be an important driver for Russia-EU cooperation in various areas:
- Russia
needs to develop a clear political strategy for its Africa policy. In reality, Moscow currently
lacks such a strategy. The official concept of Russian policy in Africa it is set out in only
general terms. Understanding the EU's experience in developing strategies and analyzing their
implementation could help to distinguish which African challenges could be solved that would benefit
Russian interests in the long-term. Such a strategy could foresee tripartite (EU-Russian-African)
cooperation.
- The African continent is the stage for intensive interaction between
representatives of different cultures, religions and civilizations. This calls for a complex,
multidimensional model of Russian "soft power", including increasing the (currently very small)
number of Russian non-governmental and charity organizations operating in Africa. Developing joint
projects with European NGOs could both stimulate results and enhance tripartite cooperation.
- In 2014, Russia adopted its Concept for International Development Assistance. [14]
Russian assistance to Africa in 2017 exceeded one billion dollars. Russian contributions to the
World Food Programme Fund are growing. Russia is the fifth largest payer to the UNIDO Industrial
Development Fund. Moscow also provides considerable funds to fight diseases in Africa. For example,
Russia and RUSAL's continued support of the fight against Ebola in Guinea has resulted in
significant progress that has prevented the spread of the disease since 2014. At the height of the
Ebola epidemic, in 2015, RUSAL built a special scientific clinical diagnostic center for
epidemiology and microbiology (NCDCEM) – the most modern of its kind in West Africa. The company has
invested more than $10 million in this project. The center has also become a platform for the study
and prevention of infectious diseases in Guinea and a training center for future epidemiologists. A
new vaccine against the Ebola virus was introduced by Russia in 2019. Cooperation with EU partners
in such projects could speed up research and improve the health situation in African countries
affected by epidemic diseases.
- Russia and its African partners have difficulties with
product certification. African businessmen do not understand Russian specifics, and Russian
businesses are still biased towards Africa as a marginal market. There is an opportunity here for
the EU taking a consultancy role on such matters.
- Stereotypical images of Africa in Russia
and little knowledge about the continent is a major obstacle to cooperation. EU companies could take
a consulting and intermediary role in the business processes.
The EU is undergoing a period of challenges and
sometimes is facing difficulties to forge common positions, including on Africa. Moreover, many
EU member states argue against cooperation with Russia. In these circumstances, it is very
difficult to find common ground