Despite growing political differences, Moscow
continues to support Lukashenka through his latest domestic political travails. Official figures put
his share of the presidential vote at 80 percent. The candidate of the united opposition, Sviatlana
Tsikhanouskaya, had just 10 percent according to the Central Election Commission. Opposition exit
polls paint a very different picture, with some showing the proportions exactly inverted. Since the
announcement of the results the country has seen ongoing mass demonstrations, to which the security
forces have responded with brutality. Nevertheless, President Putin congratulated Lukashenka on his
"victory" as expected on Monday morning.
The Russian political discourse pays very close
attention to developments in Belarus, reflecting a persistent post-imperial lack of distance to its
sovereign neighbours. Looking at the Russian discussion one might forget that there actually is a
border between Russia and Belarus, much as was the case following the Ukrainian presidential
election in 2019. Another reason for this closeness lies in the similarity of the political systems.
Both are ageing autocracies that are out of touch with the society they rule and suffer rapidly
evaporating legitimacy. The economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic is tangibly
accelerating these processes in both states.
The Russian state media tend to play down the
significance of the events and push a geopolitical interpretation in which the protesters are a
minority controlled by hostile Western actors. They would not exist without Western support, it is
asserted. The objective of Western policy is said to be reducing Russian influence in the region and
ultimately "regime change" in Moscow. In other words, the issue is not liberty but geopolitical
rivalry. In this understanding the trouble in Minsk is just the latest in a long series of Western
plots against Russia – following the 2014 Euromaidan in Ukraine and the "colour revolutions" of the
early 2000s. The needs of Belarusian society are completely ignored.
Russia's independent
media, on the other hand, seek to present a realistic picture, concentrating on developments within
Belarus and Lukashenka's loss of public legitimacy. Belarus is also treated as a template for
Russia's own political future. Comparisons are frequently drawn with the ongoing protests in
Khabarovsk, with speculation whether Minsk 2020 might be Moscow 2024.